Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
Colombia Primera A
Millonarios
Alianza Valledupar
11月 12, 2026 at 22:00
Upcoming
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar prediction and betting tip for this Colombia Primera A match, kicking off 11月 12, 2026 at 22:00. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.05), 85% confidence.
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar Preview
Millonarios host Alianza Valledupar in the Colombia Primera A (Clausura - 19) on 木曜日 12 11月 2026, kick-off 22:00 GMT+0100.
Millonarios are 7th in the table with 27 points from 18 games (6-9-3), while Alianza Valledupar sit 16th on 18 points. Millonarios have a 9-point advantage. At home Millonarios have won 3 of 8; Alianza Valledupar have won 3 of 8 on the road.
Millonarios have one win, three draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (D-W-D-D-L), averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Alianza Valledupar have two wins and three defeats in their last 5 league games (W-W-L-L-L), averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Millonarios have won 2, Alianza Valledupar 2, with 2 draws and an average of 2.8 goals per game. The most recent, in 5月 2026, finished Alianza Valledupar 2-2 Millonarios.
Millonarios average 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season, with 12 clean sheets and 6 games without scoring, usually in a 5-3-2. Alianza Valledupar average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game this season, with 8 clean sheets and 13 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: A. Estupiñán leads Millonarios's scoring with 19 goals and 4 assists.
Bookmakers make Millonarios the favourites: Millonarios 1.28, draw 5.25, Alianza Valledupar 11.00 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.70 and under at 2.10. Both teams to score: yes 2.20, no 1.62.
Our prediction: Millonarios or draw (1X). The model gives Millonarios or a draw a 90% chance, Millonarios have lost only 1 of their last 5 and they sit 7th, 9 places above Alianza Valledupar.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Millonarios | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | +9 | 27 |
| 16 | Alianza Valledupar | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
Season stats
| Millonarios | Alianza Valledupar | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 37 | 37 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 13 / 14 / 10 | 8 / 11 / 18 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 56 (1.5) | 31 (0.8) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 39 (1.1) | 58 (1.6) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 12 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 13 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 5-1 | 1-0 |
| Usual formation | 5-3-2 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- A. Estupiñán 19 goals · 4 assists
- L. Castro 12 goals · 6 assists
- R. Contreras 10 goals · 1 assists
No player in the league's top scorers list.
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 11 11月 2026, 00:27. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.63 – 0.69 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 93/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios win | 60.2% | 73.5% | 1.28 | -23.0% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 17.9% | 5.25 | +28.0% |
| Alianza Valledupar win | 15.5% | 8.6% | 11.00 | +70.1% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 84.5% | 91.4% | 1.05 | -11.2% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 39.8% | 26.5% | 3.50 | +39.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.3% | 76.6% | 1.22 | -17.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.9% | 55.3% | 1.70 | -30.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 44.7% | 2.10 | +24.2% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79.6% | 64.5% | 1.44 | +14.6% |
| Both teams to score | 39.9% | 42.4% | 2.20 | -12.1% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 11 11月 2026, 00:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Millonarios or draw (1X) — The model gives Millonarios or a draw a 90% chance, Millonarios have lost only 1 of their last 5 and they sit 7th, 9 places above Alianza Valledupar.
Form (last 5)
Millonarios
DWDDL
1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Alianza Valledupar
WWLLL
0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Millonarios wins 2 draws 2 Alianza Valledupar wins last 6 meetings
- Alianza Valledupar2 - 2Millonarios Primera A
- Alianza Valledupar3 - 0Millonarios Primera A
- Millonarios2 - 0Alianza Valledupar Primera A
- Alianza Valledupar2 - 1Millonarios Primera A
- Millonarios1 - 1Alianza Valledupar Primera A
- Alianza Valledupar1 - 2Millonarios Copa Colombia
Statistics: API-Football · updated 11 11月 2026, 00:26. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
